Credit Risk Evolution in the Current Pandemic and Beyond

The year 2020 started with a global public health crisis that forced the global economy to its knees within months. The Pandemic of 2020 morphed from an international public health disaster into a worldwide economic crisis not experienced since the Great Depression of the early 1930s. The year 2020 also coincided with implementing the new regulation that affects how banks measure credit risk in the various portfolios – Commercial & Industrial Loans, Consumer Loans, and Commercial Real Estate Loans.

The new standard, Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL), takes a prospective view of credit losses over the loan’s lifetime in determining the current loan loss allowance, the cushion that banks must set aside against future credit losses. The task of deciding lifetime losses in the middle of a pandemic is so much more challenging because you are already in a deep, outside of your experience, stressed scenario that you must force yourself to see past it. But what recovery scenarios are you supposed to conjure up for the post-pandemic part of the loan’s lifetime?

Our panel discussion will address the performance of the various loan portfolios during the Pandemic and the behavior of these portfolios under plausible and worst-case scenarios of the course of the Pandemic and economic recovery.

Date: March 16, 2021

Location: Zoom link will be sent prior to the event

Time: 8:00 am to 9:00 am EST

RSVP HERE

Moderator: H.S. Bob Kostakopoulos

Deputy Academic Director and Lecturer, ERM Program

Panelists:

• Erdem Aktug

Director & Team Leader, UBS Investment Bank

• Daniel Cope

Partner in the Risk, Digital, and Retail & Business Banking practices, Oliver Wyman

• Chris Mann

Head of Wholesale Credit Risk Modeling, MUFG Bank in the Americas

• Meenoo Sameer

Director Risk Management, CIT

For questions, please contact Jay Hirsch, jh3975@columbia.edu.