Registration REQUIRED by 4pm on November 24, 2024 in order to attend this event.

Please join the Harriman Institute for a lecture by Asel Murzakulova. Moderated by Alexander Cooley.

Central Asia has experienced a faster rise in temperature than the global average (IPCC, 2023). As a result, the region is facing an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as greater aridity, more frequent droughts, glacier melt, and declining agricultural productivity. Additionally, variability in snowfall in mountainous regions worsens environmental and agricultural challenges related to water availability. This complex interaction of factors puts even more pressure on the region’s ecosystems and agriculture.

The presentation will analyze hydropolitical dynamics in Central Asia over the past 30 years, focusing on how the political recognition of climate change impacts and the assessment of future water stress risks have transformed the security landscape. While conflicts previously centered on upstream and downstream countries, the situation has become more complex. Climate change concerns have strengthened the negotiating position of the weaker upstream nations. It is likely that future water agreements will focus on securing guaranteed water volumes in upstream reservoirs (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Furthermore, the distribution of water from the Amu Darya will depend on the success of riparian countries’ negotiations with Afghanistan.